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世界水产养殖产量1990年达1500万 t,预计到2000年将迟1960万 t,到2010年达3750万 t,到2025年达6240万 t。其间世界捕捞产量将稳定在1亿 t,因此未来的海产品供应增加量将全部来自水产养殖。全世界有许多地区存在着发展水产养殖的可能性。技术和自然条件决定着场地的选择和生产的品种。目前的研究表明,未来几年内将有许多新品种加入现在的水产养殖产量中。但众所周知的品种如鲤、罗非鱼、鳟鱼、鲑鱼、鲆、鲽、鳕、鲟鱼等仍是未来几年内最重要的品种。甲壳类动物中,虾将继续是重要的产品,还有各种腹足类和双壳类。发展水产养殖特别适宜的地区有非洲、亚洲和拉丁美洲。淡水养殖大规模发展亦可能在东欧国家,其中包括前苏联。但东欧和非洲的政治和经济限制因素将会阻碍下一个10年的发展。非洲发展水产养殖的限制因素主要是没有基础,并存在某种程度的污染。东欧发展水产养殖的限制因素是缺乏资金、政治和经济发展不稳定,以及环境问题。亚洲可利用的适宜场地成为问题,因为存有污染、疾病,还有过度生育。全球发展水产养殖总的限制因素是物价不稳定,影响了有意投资者的投资决心。这个问题从经济运转的关系中可以看出。推出一个新品种,通常有一段短期的高效益,尔后价格下降,许多经营者亏本。具有管理经验的慎重的经营者将继续从事较有利润的生意。这种机制看起来对所有新的生意领域是正确的,保持了投资者发展水产养殖的利益。
World aquaculture production reached 15 million tons in 1990 and is expected to be 19.6 million tons by the year 2000, 37.5 million tons by 2010 and 62.4 million tons by 2025. During the world fishing output will be stable at 100 million tons, so the future increase in the supply of seafood will all come from aquaculture. There are many regions in the world that have the potential to develop aquaculture. Technological and natural conditions determine the choice of venue and the variety of production. Current research shows that many new varieties will be added to the current aquaculture production in the coming years. However, well-known breeds such as carp, tilapia, trout, salmon, flounder, jackal, codfish and sturgeon are still the most important breeds in the coming years. Crustaceans, shrimp will continue to be an important product, there are a variety of gastropods and bivalves. Particularly suitable for aquaculture development are Africa, Asia and Latin America. Large-scale development of freshwater aquaculture may also be in Eastern European countries, including the former Soviet Union. However, the political and economic constraints in Eastern Europe and Africa will hinder the development of the next decade. The limiting factor for the development of aquaculture in Africa is largely unfounded and there is some degree of pollution. Constraints on the development of aquaculture in Eastern Europe are lack of financial resources, political and economic instability, and environmental problems. The right venues available in Asia are a problem because of pollution, disease and over-fertility. The overall limiting factor in the global development of aquaculture is price volatility, which affects the investor’s determination to invest. This problem can be seen from the relationship between economic operation. Launching a new breed usually has a short-term cost-benefit, after which prices have fallen and many operators have lost money. Prudent managers with management experience will continue to do more profitable business. This mechanism appears to be correct for all new business areas and maintains the interest of investors in the development of aquaculture.