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为定量研究老虎沟流域径流对气候变化的响应,利用老虎沟流域1959年和2014年强消融期(7月)的气象、径流数据,分析了强消融期气温、降水、蒸发、冰川消融量、径流(流域的径流深)等的变化,进而探讨了老虎沟流域强消融期气温分布和降水形态、流域蒸发和冰川消融对径流的影响。结果表明:老虎沟流域2014年强消融期径流比1959年多159 mm,增加了49.67%。2014年7月平均气温较1959年升高0.38℃,最低气温升高1.34℃。1959年和2014年7月降水量相差较小;老虎沟流域强消融期日降水和日径流之间呈负相关,蒸发量的变化较小,流域内祁连山站的混合态降水比例减少23.01%,导致降水转化为径流的比例增大;起决定性作用的是正积温,2014年7月较1959年的正积温高11.71℃·d,主要由于2~4℃的气温日数增多导致正积温增加,从而加剧冰川消融对径流的补给。
In order to quantitatively study the response of runoff to climate change in Laogou Catchment, the author analyzed the changes of air temperature, precipitation, evaporation, glacier ablation volume during strong ablation period by using meteorological and runoff data from 1959 and 2014 in Laohugou Catchment, Runoff depth (runoff depth) of the watershed and so on. And then the effect of temperature distribution and precipitation form, basin evaporation and glacier ablation on runoff in Lahuohugou watershed during strong ablation period was discussed. The results show that the runoff intensity of strong ablation period in Laogou Ditch Basin in 2014 is 159 mm more than that in 1959, an increase of 49.67%. The average temperature in July 2014 increased by 0.38 ° C from 1959 and the minimum temperature increased by 1.34 ° C. There was a small difference between precipitation in July 1959 and July 2014. There was a negative correlation between daily precipitation and daily runoff during the strong ablation period in Laogou Drainage Basin and a small change in evaporation. The proportion of mixed precipitation in Qilian Mountain Station in the basin decreased by 23.01% The decisive factor is the positive accumulated temperature. In July 2014, the positive accumulated temperature was 11.71 ℃ · d higher than that in 1959, which was mainly due to the positive accumulated temperature increase due to the increasing number of days at 2 ~ 4 ℃, which aggravated the glacier Ablation of runoff supplies.