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2012年是人民币汇改以来人民币兑美元汇率双向波动幅度最大的一年。展望2013年人民币汇率走势,尽管当前美元兑人民币1年远期价格显示人民币贬值2%,但我们分析认为,人民币将继续小幅升值、且更加富有弹性。一、2012年人民币汇率走势主要特征和原因在内外多种因素作用下,2012年人民币汇率走势跌宕起伏,呈现出两大特征:1.汇率经窄幅波动、贬值再升值三个阶段,
2012 is the year when the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fluctuated the most in both directions since the RMB exchange rate reform. Looking forward to the trend of RMB exchange rate in 2013, despite the current 1-year USD / CNY exchange rate depreciation of RMB 2%, our analysis suggests that the RMB will continue to appreciate slightly and be more flexible. I. Main Characteristics and Reasons of RMB Exchange Rate Trend in 2012 Under the influence of many factors both inside and outside, the RMB exchange rate movements in 2012 show ups and downs, showing two characteristics: 1. The exchange rate has experienced three stages of narrow fluctuation and devaluation,