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在2008年国际金融危机背景下中东欧国家普遍发生了国际资本的骤停现象,进而导致货币危机和经济衰退。本文首先运用规范方法对中东欧8个国家进行分析,表明这些国家都出现了显著的资本骤停时期。然后根据三代危机模型及其相关实证的结果,选取经常项目赤字、外债规模、债务美元化程度和短期债务与外汇储备比四个具有代表性的指标来考察中东欧转型国家危机前后的经济基础状况的变化趋势,发现恶化的经济基础和严重的直接外部冲击是导致2008年资本骤停的主要因素。此外,过度开放的资本账户和不成熟市场经济特点是导致中东欧国家发生资本骤停的深层次原因。这些特点包括较高均衡利率、低储蓄率、单一的贸易结构和不健全的金融体系等。最后根据中东欧国家的经验对中国资本账户开放后可能面临的资本骤停风险进行分析,提出政策建议。
In the context of the international financial crisis in 2008, the arrest of international capital generally occurred in Central and Eastern European countries, which in turn led to the currency crisis and economic recession. This article first uses a canonical approach to the analysis of eight Central and Eastern European countries, indicating that these countries have seen a significant period of capital stops. Then, according to the results of the three generations of crisis model and its related empirical evidence, this paper chooses four representative indicators of the current account deficit, the scale of foreign debt, the degree of dollarization of debt and the ratio of short-term debt to foreign exchange reserve to examine the economic fundamentals of the transition countries in Central and Eastern Europe before and after the crisis The finding of a deteriorating economic base and serious direct external shocks are the main factors leading to the capital stasis in 2008. In addition, the over-opened capital account and the immature market economy are the underlying reasons for the capital stops in Central and Eastern European countries. These characteristics include higher equilibrium interest rates, low savings rates, a single trade structure and an inadequate financial system. Finally, based on the experience of Central and Eastern European countries, it analyzes the possible risk of capital arrest after the opening of China’s capital account and puts forward policy suggestions.