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运用计量经济学的有关方法,对广州市1950年到2011年的地方财政收入和地区内生产总值(GDP)之间的时间序列数据进行了协整关系的检验,误差修正模型的检验和格兰杰因果关系的检验。所得主要结论有:地区内经济增长与财政收入之间存在着协整关系,GDP对地方财政收入的增加具有明显的作用。由格兰杰检验可知,地区经济增长与地方财政收入的增加有明显的因果关系。
Using the methods of econometrics, we test the cointegration relationship of the time-series data between the local fiscal revenue and GDP in Guangzhou City from 1950 to 2011. The test of the error correction model Lan Jie causality test. The main conclusions are: there is a cointegration relationship between economic growth and fiscal revenue in the region, and GDP has obvious effect on the increase of local financial revenue. According to Granger’s test, there is a clear causal relationship between regional economic growth and the increase of local fiscal revenue.