桃小食心虫是为害果实的重要害虫,以幼虫在地下做冬茧越冬,由于山地果园越冬场所分散,寄主范围广,防治适期难以掌握,为经济有效地控制其为害,必须采用科学的方法预测预报,克服凭经验估计的偏差。二类到别分析法建立的判别函数式,可对桃小食心虫越冬代成虫高峰期进行中、长期预报。1 预报的依据通过对桃小食心虫进行多年系统调查,获得桃小越冬代成虫高峰日的数据,以该原始数据为因变量,按高峰日期的偏早或偏晚进行定向分类,以7月1日为界,即高峰日期在7月1日以前的预报偏早,反之,预报偏晚。高峰日期呈现的早晚与5月至6月的气温、地温、相对湿度、降雨量、温雨系数等30余个气象因子有程度不同的相关性。采用判 Peach mungbean beetle is an important pest of fruit damage, larvae do winter cocoon overwintering in the ground, as the mountain orchards dispersed overwintering sites, a wide range of host, control of the appropriate period difficult to master, in order to control the damage cost-effective, we must use scientific methods to predict Forecast, to overcome the bias estimated by experience. The discriminant function established by the second type to the analytic method can predict medium and long-term forecasts of the overwintering adults of peach moth. 1 Basis for forecasting Through perennial systematic investigation of peach moth, we obtained the data of peach overwintering pests on the peak day. The original data were used as the dependent variable to classify them according to the earlier or later peak date. Day for the community, that is, the peak date of pre-July 1 forecast early, on the contrary, the forecast is late. The peak date appears sooner or later and the May to June the temperature, ground temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, temperature and rainfall coefficient more than 30 meteorological factors have different degrees of relevance. Adopt sentence