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提出最严格水资源管理制度下的水资源安全评价指标体系和分级标准,构建基于投影寻踪(PP)模型的水资源安全评价模型,以文山州及所辖行政区水资源安全评价为例进行实例研究。首先,基于最严格水资源管理制度及水资源安全基本内涵,从水资源禀赋、用水总量、用水效率与限制纳污4个方面遴选出17个指标,用于构建水资源安全评价指标体系分级标准;其次,针对PP模型在实际应用中最佳投影方向a难以确定,以及传统单种群粒子群优化(PSO)算法易出现早熟收敛等不足,提出一种异构多种群粒子群优化(CHPSO)算法,该算法将整个种群分为4个异构但彼此信息共享的子群,各子群采用不同的搜索策略进行搜索,依据不同的信息共享机制在子群之间进行信息共享,最终将子群中最优解作为该算法的全局最优解,并通过4个高维复杂函数对该算法进行对比验证;最后,利用CHPSO算法搜寻PP模型最佳投影方向a,提出CHPSO—PP水资源安全评价模型,并对实例进行评价。结果表明:(1)CHPSO算法具有较好的收敛精度和全局寻优能力,将CHPSO算法用于PP模型最佳投影方向a的选取,可有效提高PP模型评价精度;(2)CHPSO—PP模型对文山州及所辖行政区2015、2020和2030年水资源安全评价结果分别为“临界安全—较安全”、“较安全”和“较安全—非常安全”。
Put forward the water resources safety evaluation index system and grading standard under the strictest water resource management system, and establish the water resources safety evaluation model based on the projection pursuit (PP) model. Take the Wanshan Prefecture and the administrative districts water resources safety evaluation as an example the study. First of all, based on the most stringent water resources management system and the basic connotation of water resources security, 17 indicators are selected from four aspects of water resource endowment, total water use, water use efficiency and limited pollutant containment, which are used to build a water security assessment index system hierarchy Standard. Secondly, aiming at the difficulty in determining the best projective direction a of the PP model in practical application and the premature convergence of the traditional single population swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, a multi-cluster swarm optimization (CHPSO) The algorithm divides the entire population into four heterogeneous but information sharing subgroups. Each subgroup uses different search strategies to search for information, shares information among subgroups according to different information sharing mechanisms, The optimal solution in the group is taken as the global optimal solution of the algorithm, and the algorithm is validated by four high-dimensional complex functions. Finally, CHPSO algorithm is used to search for the best projection direction of PP model a, and CHPSO-PP water resource security Evaluate the model and evaluate the examples. The results show that: (1) The CHPSO algorithm has better convergence precision and global optimization ability. CHPSO algorithm can be used to choose the optimal projection direction a of PP model, which can effectively improve the evaluation accuracy of PP model; (2) CHPSO-PP model The results of water resources safety evaluation of Wenshan Prefecture and its administrative regions in 2015, 2020 and 2030 are respectively “critical safety - safer”, “safer” and “safer - safer”.