论文部分内容阅读
一、政策刺激力度弱于预期,经济继续加速下滑(一)逆周期调节政策力度不够,经济继续加速下降增长与物价双双加速下滑,经济形势继续变差。2012年上半年,国内生产总值同比增长7.8%。季度经济增速由前期缓慢下行转变为加速回落态势,具体看,一季度增长8.1%,较去年四季度大幅回落0.8个百分点;二季度增长7.6%,较上季度回落0.5个百分点。同时,物价也呈现加速回落态势,一季度CPI实现同比增长3.8%,较去年四季度回落1.8个百分点;二季度实现同比增长2.9%,较上季度回落0.8个百分点;工业领域的产品价格已跌至负增长。经济加速下行与物价加速下跌易形成通缩循环,推动经济形势进一步变差。积极政策操作已开启,逆周期操作力度不足。货币政策方面,
First, the policy stimulus weaker than expected, the economy continued to accelerate the decline (A) the counter-cyclical adjustment policy is not enough, the economy continues to accelerate the decline in growth and prices both accelerated decline, the economic situation continues to deteriorate. In the first half of 2012, GDP grew by 7.8% over the same period of previous year. Specifically, the first quarter rose 8.1%, a sharp drop of 0.8 percentage points from the fourth quarter of last year; the second quarter increased 7.6% from the previous quarter, down 0.5 percentage point. At the same time, prices also showed an acceleration trend down. In the first quarter, the CPI realized a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, 1.8 percentage points lower than that of the fourth quarter of last year; 2.9% growth in the second quarter and 0.8 percentage points from the previous quarter; To negative growth. The accelerated economic downturn and the accelerated price drop are likely to create a deflationary cycle, pushing the economic situation further worsened. Positive policy operation has been opened, counter-cyclical operation is not enough. In monetary policy,