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危险概率是如何计算出来的众所周知,塌方、地震、雪崩、海啸、雷击、溺水等很多意外事故,不是人力所能完全控制的。国外的危机处理专家,根据每100万人口的非正常去世记录进行统计,预测人们可能遇到的危险,说明即使太平盛世我们也不能保证自己百分之百安全无忧,这里列出十项主要的危险概率:高处坠落,危险概率1/20000;车祸,危险概率1/40000;溺水,危险概率1/50000;食物中毒,危险概率1/86000;进食噎梗,危险概率1/160000;飞机失事,危险概率1/250000;被空中坠落的物体砸中,危险概率1/290000;触电,危险概率1/350000;雷击,危险概率1/2000000;寒冻伤害,危险概率1/3000000。保险公司的广告,常用这些危险概率来说服人们买保险。从二万分之一到三百万分之一的概率可知,世界上的绝大多数人都会活得很平安。有人说,如果十个危险概率相加呢?这种假设经不起推敲,你总不能假设某个人昨天遭遇车祸、今天又遭遇溺水、明天再遭遇触电吧?但是,如果有人127次与死神擦肩而过,危险概率又该如何计算呢?世界上也许没有比77岁的波兰老太太芭芭拉·罗丽亚更幸运的人了。她一生遭遇过大约127次大大小小的致命灾难,包括4次空难、7次车祸、2次火
It is well known how dangerous probability is calculated. Many accidents such as landslides, earthquakes, avalanches, tsunami, lightning strikes, and drowning are not completely controlled by manpower. Crisis experts from abroad, according to the statistical records of abnormal deaths per one million people, forecast people’s possible dangers, and show that even if we are not at peace, we cannot guarantee one hundred percent safety. Here are ten major risk probabilities. : Falling at high altitude, with a hazard probability of 1/20,000; car accidents, with a hazard probability of 1/40000; drowning, with a risk probability of 1/50000; food poisoning, with a risk probability of 1/86000; feeding aphids, with a risk probability of 1/160000; plane crash, danger Probability 1/250000; The number of objects falling in the sky, the probability of hazard 1/290000; Electrocution, the probability of 1/35000; Lightning strike, the probability of hazard 1/2000000; Frost damage, the probability of danger is 1/3000000. Insurers’ advertisements often use these dangerous probabilities to persuade people to buy insurance. From the probability of one in 10,000 to one in three million, we can see that the vast majority of people in the world live in peace. Some people say that if ten dangerous probabilities are added together, this hypothesis can’t stand up to scrutiny, and you can’t assume that someone was involved in a car accident yesterday, that he was suffering from drowning today, and that he would have an electric shock tomorrow, but if someone ran away with the corpse 127 times, Should there be a danger, how should one calculate the risk probability? There may not be more lucky people in the world than 77-year-old Polish Barbara Rolia. She has suffered about 127 fatal disasters of all sizes throughout her life, including 4 plane crashes, 7 car accidents and 2 fires.