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WTO带来多少“饭碗”就业总量:长期利好,近期冲击较大预计在今后10年间,就业弹性会达到0.15左右,即GDP每增长1个百分点,就业总量增长0.15个百分点。以此推算,入世后每年平均增加200万-300万个就业机会。不过,从短期(3年～5年)看,考虑到入世对我国传统行业和原有就业格局的冲击,就业机会不仅难以增加,反而可能减少。入世初期,我国城镇失业率有可能比目前水平上升一倍,达到7%。
The number of jobs brought by the WTO Total employment: long-term positive, the recent impact of larger In the next 10 years, employment elasticity will reach 0.15 or so, that GDP growth of 1 percentage point, the total employment growth of 0.15 percentage points. Based on this, after the accession to the WTO, there will be an average increase of 2 million to 3 million jobs each year. However, judging from the short-term (3 to 5 years), taking into account the impact of WTO accession on the traditional industries and the original employment pattern in our country, employment opportunities will not only be hard to increase, but may decrease. In the early days of accession to the WTO, China’s urban unemployment rate is likely to double its current level to 7%.