机翼结冰导致气动特性改变,为了定量分析机翼结冰导致的飞行风险,提出了利用人-机系统数值仿真数据进行概率评估的方法。考虑结冰对临界迎角、升阻特性等的影响,通过建立非线性动力学仿真模型和特殊情况下驾驶员操纵副翼偏转模型,实现了机翼结冰后的人-机系统动态仿真。分析了非指令控制滚转不正常现象,并通过影响因子的概率分布模型,最终实现了飞行风险概率评估。 Due to the change of the aerodynamic characteristics caused by the icing of the wing, in order to quantitatively analyze the flight risk caused by the icing of the wing, a method of estimating the probability using the numerical simulation data of the man-machine system is proposed. Considering the influence of icing on the critical angle of attack and lift resistance, the dynamic simulation of the man-machine system after the icing of the wing was realized by establishing the nonlinear dynamic simulation model and the pilot-operated aileron deflection model under special conditions. The abnormal roll of non-command control is analyzed. Finally, the probability of flight risk is evaluated by the probability distribution model of influence factors.