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本文比较了21世纪以来中国和拉美主要国家在中拉双方共同的重要出口目的地——美国市场上的出口贸易情况,应用市场份额和贸易强度两个指标分析了中拉在美国市场上的出口竞争程度,并应用恒定市场份额模型(CMS)量化分析了在美国市场上中国和拉美主要国家在制成品上的出口挤占情况。实证结果表明,虽然21世纪以来中国在美国市场上的出口竞争力越来越强,但是对拉美国家的出口竞争威胁并没有西方学者认为的那么严重。全球金融危机之后,拉美主要国家受到来自中国的出口贸易竞争程度在减轻,挤出份额也在减少;实证结果还显示,有些国家甚至挤出了中国的出口份额。
This article compares the export trade between the United States and China, the major export destinations between China and Latin America since the 21st century, and analyzes the export of the China-Latin America market to the United States using the two indexes of market share and trade intensity The level of competition and using the constant market share model (CMS) quantitative analysis of the United States on the market in China and Latin America, the major countries in the export of manufactured goods on the situation. The empirical results show that although the export competitiveness of China in the United States market has been growing since the 21st century, the threat of export competition to Latin American countries is not as serious as that of western scholars. After the global financial crisis, the major Latin American countries have been experiencing a degree of competition in export trade from China and their share of extrusion has been declining. The empirical results also show that some countries even squeezed out the share of China’s exports.