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本文使用向量误差修正模型(VECM)以及情景模拟方法对我国公共财政的可持续性进行分析,并在此基础上分析了“新常态”条件下我国扩张型财政政策的政策空间。实证分析的结论显示,我国政府部门存在较好的财政纪律有助于避免债务负担率的无限上升;同时,目前债务和赤字率的上升会随着未来经济增速的恢复自动下降,不会对我国经济造成实质性损害。情景模拟的结论也显示,随着未来扩张型财政政策的推行,未来五年我国财政赤字率将处在4%—5%的范围,而政府部门债务率将处于60%—70%高负债区间,但我国政府部门债务仍具有较强的可持续性。面对“新常态”的挑战,未来我国扩张型财政政策应以实现结构性调整和服务供给侧改革为目标,同时注重防范财政风险向金融部门的蔓延。
This paper uses vector error correction model (VECM) and scenario simulation method to analyze the sustainability of China’s public finance, and on this basis, analyzes the policy space of China’s expansionary fiscal policy under the condition of “new normal ”. The conclusion of the empirical analysis shows that the good fiscal discipline in our government departments helps to avoid the unlimited increase of the debt burden. At the same time, the current rise in the debt and the deficit rate will automatically decline with the restoration of future economic growth, Our economy has caused substantial damage. The results of the scenario simulation also show that with the implementation of the expansionary fiscal policy in the future, the fiscal deficit rate of China will be in the range of 4% -5% over the next five years while the government debt rate will be in the high debt range of 60% -70% , But the government debt in our country still has strong sustainability. In the face of the challenge of “new normal”, China’s expanding fiscal policy should aim to achieve structural adjustment and service-side reform in the future while paying due attention to preventing the spread of fiscal risks to the financial sector.