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丝绸之路经济带是中国全方位对外开放与互联互通的战略通道之一,水资源环境对其经济发展具有重要影响。通过三次计量模型分析2005—2014年丝绸之路经济带水资源、水环境的库兹涅茨曲线;进一步选取典型指标,选用熵权法与距离协调度模型建立两系统协调度模型,并对2020年以前的水资源环境与经济社会协调度进行预测。结果显示:(1)工业用水强度与废水排放量EKC曲线呈先上升后下降的倒“U”型,化学需氧量呈先下降后上升的“U”型,而居民人均用水量EKC曲线呈“N”型。(2)沿线各省区协调发展是不平衡的,西南省区协调度相对较高,而西北省区相对较低;两系统综合协调度在过去10年间经历了先上升后下降两个阶段。(3)ARIMA预测2015—2020年协调值总体呈下降趋势;灰色Verhulst预测此间,协调度仍然保持缓慢增长,总体维持在0.8的水平;指数平滑预测2015—2018年协调度下降,2019—2020年缓慢上升。
The Silk Road Economic Belt is one of the strategic channels for opening up and opening up to the outside world in all directions. The water resources environment has an important influence on its economic development. The three models are used to analyze the Kuznets curve of water resources and water environment in the Silk Road Economic Belt 2005-2014. Further, the typical indexes are selected, and the model of two-system coordination is established by using entropy method and distance coordination model. Predict the water resources environment and economic and social coordination before the year. The results showed that: (1) The EKC curve of industrial water intensity and wastewater discharge increased first and then decreased, and chemical oxygen demand (COD) decreased first and then increased, while the per capita water consumption of residents The amount of EKC curve was “N” type. (2) The coordinated development of all provinces and autonomous regions along the line is unbalanced. The coordination of southwestern provinces and autonomous regions is relatively high, while that of northwestern provinces and autonomous regions is relatively low. The comprehensive coordination of the two systems has experienced two stages of increasing first and then decreasing in the past 10 years. (3) ARIMA predicts a general downward trend in the coordination values between 2015 and 2020; Gray Verhulst predicts that the coordination rate will maintain a slow growth rate at this level, generally maintaining a level of 0.8; exponential smoothing predicts a decrease in coordination between 2015 and 2018 and 2019-2020 Slowly rising.