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灰色动态模型是灰色系统理论中用于预测的主要方法。本文以长江流域棉花品种区域试验参试品种的皮棉产量、成纱品质指标,以及产量组分,纤维物理性能资料,建立 GM(1,1)动态模型,对长江流域棉花新品种产量与纤维品质的发展趋势进行研究。结果表明,皮棉产量与成纱品质均呈上升趋势,90年代末期可分别达到105.90公斤与3078分。然而,产量组分与各项纤维物理指标的发展趋势并不一致。单株铃数、衣分、主体长度、细度与成熟度为上升趋势,可分别达到22.79铃/株、40.39%,30.24毫米、5933米/克与1.97;铃重,单纤维强力与断裂长度为下降趋势,预测分别为5.03克/铃、3.63克与20.17千米。
The gray dynamic model is the main method for forecasting in gray system theory. In this paper, GM (1,1) dynamic model was established based on the lint yield, yarn quality index, yield components and fiber physical properties of the cotton cultivars in the Yangtze River Valley. The yield and fiber quality of new cotton varieties The development trend of research. The results showed that the lint yield and the quality of yarn all showed an upward trend, reaching 105.90 kg and 3078 respectively in the late 1990s. However, the trend of yield component and each fiber physical index is inconsistent. The number of bolls per plant, the litter size, the length of main body, the fineness and the maturity increased up to 22.79g / s, 40.39%, 30.24mm, 5933m / g and 1.97 respectively. The boll weight, fiber strength and breaking length For the declining trend, the forecasts were 5.03 g / bell, 3.63 g and 20.17 km respectively.