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以1991~2015年近25年安徽省池州市贵池区小麦赤霉病最终发生程度为研究对象,选取3月各旬平均温度、降水量、雨日数及3月底4月初稻桩带菌率为因子,进行灰色关联度分析,并在逐步回归分析的基础上建立贵池区小麦赤霉病发生级别中期预测模型。结果表明:贵池区小麦赤霉病发生程度与3月上旬降水量、3月中旬降水量、3月底至4月初稻桩枝带菌率呈显著正相关,可作为今后预测小麦赤霉病发生与流行的重要监测预警窗口,同时该中期预测模型预测基本正确率达88.00%以上,模型预报效果较好,历史平均吻合度达71.32%,可为防治提供科学依据。
Taking the final occurrence of wheat head blight in Guichi District, Chizhou City, Anhui Province from 1991 to 2015 as the research object, the average temperature, precipitation, rainy days in March and the rate of early rice piles in the end of March were selected as the factors , And analyzed the gray relational degree. Based on the stepwise regression analysis, we established a medium-term prediction model of wheat head blight in Guichi District. The results showed that the occurrence degree of FHB in Guichi district was positively correlated with the precipitation in early March, the precipitation in mid March and the rate of stump in early March from the end of March to April, Epidemic of important monitoring and early warning window, while the medium-term forecasting model predicts the basic correct rate of 88.00% or more, the model forecasting effect is good, the historical average of 71.32%, which can provide scientific evidence for prevention and treatment.