害虫测报,由上代的发育进度和残留量预测下代的发生期和发生量,一般可以取得相当准确的结果。然而本地棉田玉米螟的预测采用该法,预测值与实况差异很大。经过几年的分析和验证,笔者认为有如下影响因素,供讨论。 Pest forecasting, the development of the previous generation and residual capacity forecast the next generation and occurrence, generally can get very accurate results. However, the local cotton field corn borer prediction using this method, the predicted value and the real difference is very large. After several years of analysis and verification, I believe the following factors for discussion.