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目的探讨江苏省盐城市沿海滩涂地区肾综合征出血热(HFRS)时空分布特征,研究该病时空聚集性与气象因素、鼠类生物学特点等影响因素的相关性。方法收集整理盐城市沿海滩涂地区2005 2014年HFRS疫情、人口学和气象学资料,于2011年4月至2014年12月对上述地区鼠密度进行监测。用统计学方法分析HFRS疫情流行特征和时空聚集性。Pearson相关分析方法分析HFRS时空分布、鼠密度消长、气象参数变化的相关性。结果 2005 2014年盐城市沿海滩涂地区HFRS发病呈间歇性逐步升高,最高发病年份为2014年,发病率为2.83/10万,且呈现冬季高峰。HFRS发病地区以大丰、东台两个区域为主,大丰区域的海丰农场、上海农场、川东农场和东台区域的新曹农场为高发乡镇。10年间可能存在两个HFRS发病聚集区域,分别为2010年12月至2014年12月东台区域的新曹农场和2009年11月至2011年12月的大丰区域的上海农场、海丰农场。盐城市沿海滩涂地区优势鼠种为黑线姬鼠,构成比为89.19%。2011 2013年HFRS发病高峰与鼠密度高峰具有一致性,且发病高峰前均有一个气温、降雨量高峰。由Pearson相关分析可知,气温与HFRS发病率具有统计学相关性,其他气象因素及鼠密度与HFRS发病率无统计学相关。结论盐城市沿海滩涂地区存在HFRS疫区,且有时空聚集性,这与该地区存在传播HFRS的流行因素有关,应继续加强监测并采取有效措施予以防控。
Objective To investigate the spatio - temporal distribution of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in coastal tidal flat areas in Yancheng City, Jiangsu Province, and to study the correlation between spatial and temporal aggregation of the disease and the influencing factors such as meteorological factors and biological characteristics. Methods The data of HFRS epidemic, demography and meteorology in coastal areas of Yancheng from 2014 to 2014 were collected and collected. From April 2011 to December 2014, the rat density in these areas was monitored. Statistical analysis of HFRS epidemic characteristics and spatial and temporal aggregation. Pearson correlation analysis method was used to analyze the correlation between spatial and temporal distribution of HFRS, the growth and decline of rat density and the changes of meteorological parameters. Results In 2005, the incidence of HFRS in coastal tidal flat areas of Yancheng City increased intermittently in 2014, the highest incidence year was 2014, the incidence rate was 2.83 / lakh and the peak appeared in winter. The HFRS incidence areas are mainly Dafeng and Dongtai, with Haofeng Farm in Dafeng, Xincao Farm in Shanghai Farm, East Sichuan Farm and Dongtai Area as high incidence towns. During the 10 years, there may be two HFRS incidence accumulation areas: Xincao Farm in Dongtai Region from December 2010 to December 2014 and Shanghai Farm and Haifeng Farm in Dafeng Region from November 2009 to December 2011 respectively. Yancheng coastal beach area dominant species of black semen Apodemus, constitute ratio of 89.19%. In 2011, the peak incidence of HFRS was consistent with the peak of rat density, and there was a temperature and rainfall peak before the onset of HFRS. Pearson correlation analysis shows that there is a statistically significant correlation between air temperature and the incidence of HFRS. Other meteorological factors and rat density have no significant correlation with the incidence of HFRS. Conclusion There are epidemic HFRS epidemic in the coastal tidal flat area of Yancheng City, and there is spatial and temporal aggregation. This is related to the prevalence of HFRS spreading in this area. Monitoring and effective measures should be taken to prevent and control this area.