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本文介绍了小型供水/含水层污染问题上决策分析方法的应用,研究的主要特征是制定一系列可替代的策略,以确保在变化不定的风险条件下能持续不断地向乡村供水。本文假定分析中所涉及的各项风险均反映出渗透系数的不确定性,因此,采用了一种适用于地下水流和污染物输移的随机模拟模型,以便评估在总体设计决策上系统特性中不确定性的影响。通过考虑实际费用和可能费用,制定出可替代的决策策略,并用风险—费用—效益的目标函数进行最终比较。
This paper describes the application of decision analysis methods for small-scale water supply/aquifer pollution issues. The main feature of the study is the development of a series of alternative strategies to ensure continuous supply of water to rural areas under varying risk conditions. This article assumes that the risks involved in the analysis all reflect the uncertainty of the permeability coefficient. Therefore, a stochastic simulation model suitable for groundwater flow and pollutant transport is adopted to evaluate the system characteristics in the overall design decision-making. The effect of uncertainty. By considering actual costs and possible costs, alternative strategies for decision-making are developed, and final comparisons are made using objective functions of risk-cost-benefit.