历史的发展往往不仅仅是沿着“必然性”的轨道直线前进,有时一些“偶然性”的因素也会影响历史的进程。在众多的偶然性因素中,重要历史人物的心理及性格对政治发展的影响是不可忽视的,对于这一点,马克思在《致路·库格曼》的信中曾经指出:“如果‘偶然性’不起任何作用的话,那么世界历史就会带有非常神秘的性质。这些偶然性本身自然纳入总的发展过程中,并且为其他偶然性所补偿。但是,发展的加速和延缓在很大程度上是取决于这些‘偶然性’的,其中也包括一开始就站在运动 The development of history often goes beyond the straight line of ”necessity“, and sometimes some ”accidental“ factors can affect the course of history. Among many contingency factors, the influence of the psychology and personality of important historical figures on political development can not be ignored. In this connection, Marx pointed out in his letter to ”Path Coachmann:“ If ”contingency" If nothing is done, then the history of the world will be of a very mystical nature, which is naturally incorporated into the overall development process and compensated for other contingencies, but the acceleration and delay of development depend to a great extent on In these ’accidental’, including the beginning of the campaign