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本文首先从理论上构建了限量收购和无限量收购条件下各种粮食干预政策的产出效应模型。分析表明:在两种收购条件下补贴政策及相应的粮食价格对剩余产量是否有拉动作用取决于农户的生产行为是否受到收入约束,而在限量收购下的收购量对剩余产量存在正反双重效应。其次,本文以我国改革开放以来的粮食数据为基础对该结论进行验证,结果表明就全国平均意义上而言,补贴政策对剩余粮食产量拉动作用有限,而粮食价格的拉动作用则相对较大,说明农户生产行为并未受到收入约束,而限量收购下的收购量对剩余产量的双重效应几乎完全抵消,从而只影响总产量而不会引致扩散效应。
This paper firstly constructs the output effect model of various food intervention policies under the condition of limited purchase and unlimited acquisition theoretically. The analysis shows that whether the subsidy policy and the corresponding grain price have the effect on the surplus output under the two acquisition conditions depends on whether the production behavior of the farmers is constrained by income or not and the purchase quantity under the limited acquisition has the positive and negative double effects on the surplus output . Secondly, this paper validates the conclusion based on the grain data since the reform and opening up in our country. The results show that the subsidy policy has a limited effect on the surplus grain output in the national average sense, but the grain price pulling effect is relatively large, This shows that the peasant household’s production behavior is not constrained by the income. However, the double effect of the purchase volume under the limited purchase on the surplus production is almost completely offset, thus affecting only the total output without causing the proliferation effect.