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今年以来,消费增速放缓,但总体仍呈现平稳较快增长态势。城乡消费实际增速均下滑,城镇更甚于乡村。住、行等前期消费热点降温。就全年及明年消费走势看,就业和收入平稳增长态势、社会保障体系完善和收入分配制度改革推进、消费结构升级的必然趋势等构成消费需求平稳较快增长的有利条件。而世界经济环境恶化风险加大、消费环境亟待完善、大宗消费增速放缓等又可能对未来消费需求的较快增长产生一定的不利影响。综合因素分析和ARMA模型预测,今年社会消费品零售总额增长17%,2012年增长16%。应从大力增强居民消费能力、稳步促进消费结构升级、着力改善消费环境和积极鼓励新型消费形式等方面进一步扩大消费需求。
Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of consumption has slowed down, but overall the situation shows steady and rapid growth. The actual growth rate of urban and rural consumption all declined, with towns even more than rural areas. Live, and other pre-consumer hot spots to cool down. With regard to the consumption trend throughout the year and next year, steady employment and income growth, the improvement of the social security system and the reform of the income distribution system, as well as the inevitable trend of the upgrading of the consumption structure, constitute a favorable condition for the steady and rapid growth of consumer demand. However, the worsening risks of the world economic environment, the urgent need to improve the consumption environment, and the slowdown in the growth of bulk consumption may have a negative impact on the rapid growth of consumer demand in the future. Comprehensive factor analysis and ARMA model predict that total retail sales of social consumer goods will increase by 17% this year and by 2012 by 16%. The consumer demand should be further expanded from the perspective of vigorously enhancing the spending power of residents, steadily promoting the upgrading of the consumption structure, making efforts to improve the consumption environment and actively encouraging new forms of consumption.