灰色系统理论自80年代初提出以来,受到了各界的重视,并在许多方面得到了应用,在应用中又获得了发展。在卫生系统中,许多作者在尝试使用该系统的GM(1,1)模型或GM(1,1)残差模型对疾病、死亡、资源等的未来进行预测。本文仅就GM (1,1)模型的适用条件及目前在一些医学文献中的误用 Since its introduction in the early 1980s, the grey system theory has received attention from all walks of life and has been applied in many aspects. It has also gained development in application. In the health system, many authors try to use the system’s GM(1,1) model or GM(1,1) residual model to predict the future of diseases, deaths, resources, etc. This article only discusses the applicable conditions of the GM (1,1) model and the current misuse in some medical literature.