以江西某钨矿为工程背景,针对岩爆发生破坏性破坏前,其监测数据会突然出现变化这一现象,建立关于岩爆的灰色-突变预测模型。运用灰色建模理论对该矿山328中段313采场相邻的岩爆活动区域内地震能量累计值序列进行处理分析,同时,运用尖点突变模型对拟合序列的突变性进行分析,对岩爆发生的时间位置进行预测,成功预测到一次破坏性岩爆事件,提高了岩爆预测的准确性,说明了灰色-突变预测模型的有效性,具有重要的生产实际意义。 Taking a tungsten mine in Jiangxi Province as an example, a gray-catastrophe prediction model for rockburst is established for the phenomenon of sudden changes of monitoring data before the destructive destruction of rockburst occurs. By using gray modeling theory, the sequence of seismic energy accumulated value in the adjacent rockburst area in the 313 middle stope of the mine 328 is analyzed and treated. At the same time, the catastrophe model is used to analyze the mutation of the fitted sequence, It predicts a destructive rockburst event and improves the accuracy of rock burst prediction. It also shows the effectiveness of the gray-catastrophe prediction model and has important practical significance.