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2009年,发达经济体陷入全面衰退已成定局,新兴市场经济增速也将显著放缓。受外需继续大幅收缩的影响,中国出口形势非常严峻,实际投资增速及工业增长形势也不容乐观。同时,2009年尤其是上半年中国的通缩既表现在信贷需求走低等金融层面,也表现在社会供求失衡导致产能过剩的实体经济层面。2009年宏观调控将立足于扩大内需,防止经济过快过大下滑,“保八”成为第一要务。商业银行应在加强信贷支持的同时加强信贷风险管理,严防贷款质量大幅下滑,同时注重防范流动性风险,提高资金运营效益。
In 2009, it is a foregone conclusion that the advanced economies will fall into full recession, and the growth rate of emerging market economies will also be significantly slowed down. Affected by the sharp contraction of external demand, the situation of China’s exports is very grim. The actual investment growth and industrial growth are also not optimistic. In the meantime, China’s deflation in 2009, especially in the first half of the year, showed both at the financial level of lower credit demand and at the real economy level of overcapacity caused by social imbalance between supply and demand. In 2009, macroeconomic regulation and control will be based on expanding domestic demand and preventing the economy from falling too fast too fast. “Bao Ba” has become the top priority. Commercial banks should strengthen credit risk management while strengthening credit support so as to prevent the quality of loans from falling sharply. At the same time, commercial banks should pay attention to the prevention of liquidity risks and the efficiency of capital operation.