假定你是一个国家总理,正在为预防一种疾病的爆发作准备,预计它会使600人死亡。现在你的卫生部长提出了两个方案:X方案可以救活200人;而Y方案有1/3的可能救活600人,2/3的可能一个也救不了。因为不愿冒牺牲全部600人的风险,你可能更愿意选择X方案。可是如果卫生部长换一个说法呢 Assuming you are a state premier, you are preparing to prevent an outbreak of a disease and expect it to kill 600 people. Now your health minister has proposed two options: the X program can save 200 people; one third of the Y program may save 600 people, and two-thirds may not be saved. Because you do not want to risk sacrificing all 600 people, you may be more willing to choose the X program. But what if the health minister changed his mind?