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文中引入灰色系统理论对路面使用性能预测进行了拓展。使用常规GM(1,1)模型进行预测时,随着时间序列的增长,预测的精度将不断降低,只有时间序列较近的几个数据的精度较高。针对常规GM(1,1)模型存在的不足,文章改进了常规模型,并利用改进后的模型对某高速公路路面使用性能进行了预测。根据预测结果与路面实际检测数据的对比,分析模型预测结果的合理性和该指标的发展,证明改进后的模型精度较高,预测误差较小,可作为制定养护计划的依据。
In this paper, the gray system theory is introduced to predict the pavement performance. When using the conventional GM (1,1) model for forecasting, as the time series increases, the accuracy of forecasting will continue to decrease, and only the data with the closer time series will have higher accuracy. Aiming at the shortcomings of the conventional GM (1,1) model, the article improves the conventional model and predicts the performance of a highway pavement by using the improved model. According to the comparison between the prediction result and the actual test data, the rationality of the model prediction result and the development of the index are analyzed. It is proved that the improved model has higher accuracy and smaller prediction error, which can be used as the basis for making the maintenance plan.