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如何抑制住房需求的非理性增长已成为稳定房价,促进市场健康发展的关键问题。建立了含有市场参与者预期和城市差异的住房需求调控模型,并对1999-2010年间住房调控政策在各类城市的实施效果进行了比较和模拟分析。研究表明:市场参与者预期在样本期内对4类城市的住房需求都具有显著的正向影响,且房价水平越高的城市其住房需求越容易受房价预期的影响;存款准备金率只对B-D类城市住房需求产生了不同程度的抑制作用;土地工具对4类城市住房需求都产生了刺激作用,但作用力度各不相同;利率、经适房工具只对A类城市产生了显著影响,且作用方向相反;模拟分析表明同一政策工具在4类城市实施后,住房需求的响应是不同的。研究结论在一定程度上解释了国内住房调控的低效,对于提高住房需求调控的针对性、差异化和有效性,促进市场主体合理决策等都具有一定的现实意义。
How to curb the irrational growth of housing demand has become a key issue in stabilizing housing prices and promoting the healthy development of the market. The model of housing demand control with market participants’ expectations and urban differences was established. The effects of housing regulation and control policies in various cities during 1999-2010 were compared and simulated. The results show that: market participants expected to have a significant positive impact on housing demand in all four cities during the sample period, and the housing demand in cities with higher housing prices is more likely to be affected by housing price expectations; the deposit reserve ratio is only BD cities have different degrees of inhibition of housing demand; Land tools have stimulated housing demand in all four cities, but with different degrees of action; interest rates, through fitness room tools only have a significant impact on Class A cities, and the role The opposite direction; simulation analysis shows that the same policy tools in four cities after the implementation, the housing demand response is different. To some extent, the conclusion of the study explains the inefficiency of domestic regulation and control of housing, which has certain practical significance for improving the pertinence, differentiation and effectiveness of regulation and control of housing demand and promoting the rational decision-making of market players.