论文部分内容阅读
根据杭州气候和水稻生长特点提出了气候生产力的估算式,并估算了自1953-1988年的水稻气候生产力。据此分析了对气候生产力的利用率:早稻从六十年代初起每5年以3.8%和晚稻从1965年起每5年以5.4%的速度递增。但1985年后利用率下降。用方差分析法和谐波分析法找出了早、晚稻气候生产力的变化周期。在变化周期中,早、晚稻均有一个以33年为周期的正弦波。依据其变化周期对“八五”期间气候生产力进行了预测。预测表明“八五”期间的气候生产力明显好于八十年代。若以1982年52%的利用率计,则“八五”期间的双季水稻单产可比目前(1986—1987年平均)提高24.7%左右,潜力很大。
According to the characteristics of Hangzhou climate and rice growth climate productivity is estimated, and estimated since 1953-1988 rice climate productivity. Based on this analysis, the utilization of climatic productivity is analyzed: early rice has risen by 3.8% every five years since the early 1960s and 5.4% every five years since 1965. However, the utilization rate has dropped after 1985. Using variance analysis and harmonic analysis to find the early and late rice climate productivity change cycle. In the changing cycle, both early and late rice have a sine wave with a period of 33 years. According to the period of its change, it forecasts the climate productivity during the “85” period. Projections show that the climate productivity during the “Eighth Five-Year Plan” was significantly better than that of the 1980s. If we consider the utilization rate of 52% in 1982, the yield of double-season rice during the “1985” period will be about 24.7% higher than the current average (1986-1987), with great potential.