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本文利用HP滤波方法估计了我国潜在产出和产出缺口,并测算出我国通胀缺口,进而从目标实现角度定量分析了财政政策在促进经济增长和稳定物价方面的有效性。研究结果表明,1996年后财政政策在促进经济稳定增长方面的绩效明显改善,财政政策调控掌握了一定的提前量,且效率仍处于不断提高进程中,但不能由此忽视政府和学界预见经济走势的能力有待提高这一现实。在稳定物价方面,财政政策绩效不容乐观。平抑物价波动的功劳不应归属于财政政策,我国财政政策的主要调控目标是经济增长,而非物价稳定。通货膨胀主要还是一种货币现象,应该主要利用货币政策来调控。
In this paper, we use HP filter method to estimate the potential output and output gap in our country and measure the inflation gap in our country. Then from the perspective of target realization, we quantitatively analyze the effectiveness of fiscal policy in promoting economic growth and stabilizing prices. The results show that the performance of fiscal policy in promoting steady economic growth has improved markedly since 1996, and the control of fiscal policy has taken a certain amount of advancement and its efficiency is still in the process of continuous improvement. However, it can not be ignored that the economic trends of the government and academic circles are forecasted The ability to be improved this reality. In stabilizing prices, fiscal policy performance is not optimistic. The merit of stabilizing price volatility should not be attributed to the fiscal policy. The main regulatory goal of China’s fiscal policy is economic growth, not price stability. Inflation is mainly a monetary phenomenon and should be mainly controlled by monetary policy.