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目的阐明南水北调东线气候变化对血吸虫病传播的潜在影响。方法采集南水北调东线有关气象台站地面气候资料和血吸虫病流行病学资料,采用相关和回归分析方法分析不同纬度气温、降水、日照特征和气温、降水量变化趋势,分析气温等要素对降水量的影响,评估东线气候变化对血吸虫病流行的影响。结果南水北调东线不同纬度气象台站累年平均气温(1)、累年平均最高气温(2)、累年平均最低气温(3)、累年极端最低气温(4)、累年平均相对湿度(5)、累年降水量(6)与纬度呈显著负相关,均随着纬度的升高而呈下降趋势(r1=-0.849,P=0.000;r2=-0.776,P=0.003;r3=-0.806,P=0.002;r4=-0.798,P=0.002;r5=-0.883,P=0.000;r6=-0.961,P=0.000),而累年日照时数随纬度升高而呈增加趋势(r=0.902,P=0.000);不同纬度日照时数与年降水量间呈显著负相关(r=-0.902,P=0.000)。淮安和济南气象代表站1951～2008年1月份气温变化曲线均与时间变量(年份)呈线性上升趋势;而1970～2008年降水量与时间变量(年份)则不存在线性关系;东线各气象台站年平均最高气温与年降水量间均呈显著负相关;徐州以北年降水量均<750mm,而且随着纬度的增加,北方降水量更为减少。资料分析还表明东线钉螺分布和居民粪检阳性率与气温、降水、日照等气候要素无明显相关。结论南水北调东线气温正趋于变暖,但降水量却随气温的升高而呈减少趋势,未来东线气候变化可能并不完全满足钉螺北移和血吸虫病流行区向北扩展的气候条件。
Objective To clarify the potential impact of climate change on schistosomiasis transmission in the Eastern Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project. Methods Epidemiological data of meteorological stations on the eastern line of South-to-North Water Diversion Project were collected. Epidemiological data of schistosomiasis and schistosomiasis were collected and analyzed by correlation and regression analysis. The characteristics of temperature, precipitation, sunshine and temperature and precipitation at different latitudes were analyzed. Impact on the assessment of the impact of climate change on the prevalence of schistosomiasis in the east. Results The annual average temperature (1), annual average maximum temperature (2), annual average minimum temperature (3), annual minimum temperature (4), annual average relative humidity (5) ), And the cumulative annual precipitation (6) was significantly negatively correlated with latitude, both decreasing with increasing latitude (r1 = -0.849, P = 0.000; r2 = -0.776, P = 0.003; r3 = -0.806 , P = 0.002; r4 = -0.798, P = 0.002; r5 = -0.883, P = 0.000; r6 = -0.961, P = 0.000) while the number of sunshine hours increased with the increase of latitude (r = 0.902, P = 0.000). There was a significant negative correlation between sunshine hours at different latitudes and annual precipitation (r = -0.902, P = 0.000). The temperature curves of Huai’an and Jinan Meteorological Station from January 1951 to January 2008 all showed a linear increase with the time (year); while there was no linear relationship between the precipitation and the time variable (years) from 1970 to 2008; The annual average maximum air temperature is negatively correlated with the annual precipitation; the annual precipitation in the north of Xuzhou is <750mm, and the precipitation in the north decreases more with the increase of latitude. Data analysis also showed that the distribution of snails on the east line and the positive rate of resident fecal seizure had no significant correlation with climate factors such as temperature, precipitation and sunshine. Conclusions The temperature in the east route of South-to-North Water Diversion is warming, but the precipitation decreases with the rise of temperature. In the future, the climate change in the east may not fully meet the climatic conditions of northward expansion of snails and schistosomiasis endemic areas.