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中国家具产业遵循比较优势理论,产业规模膨胀,出口额快速增加,成为世界第一家具出口大国。然而,家具产业并没有在“出口学习”中实现自身竞争力的提升,技术能力和创新能力呈现出下降的趋势。文章通过建立中国家具产业动态系统模型并利用最优控制理论,验证家具中技术与对外贸易的相互关系,分析家具产业对外贸易与技术路径形成的原因,并预测在现有模式下的发展趋势。
China's furniture industry follows the theory of comparative advantage and its industrial scale has expanded and its export volume has rapidly risen to become the world's number one exporter of furniture. However, the furniture industry did not improve its competitiveness in “exit learning”, and the technical ability and innovative ability showed a downward trend. By establishing the dynamic system model of Chinese furniture industry and using the theory of optimal control, this paper verifies the relationship between technology and foreign trade in furniture, analyzes the reasons for the formation of foreign trade and technological paths in the furniture industry, and forecasts the development trend under the current mode.