由于中央一系列政策的作用,我国经济一季度已触底回升,下半年企稳向好趋势明显,预计全年GDP增长8%左右,规模以上企业工业增加值增长8.5%。但我国经济对外依存度高,外需疲软使多数行业产能过剩严重。扩大内需不可能也不应该保持旧有结构,下一阶段必须更加重视将保增长与调结构相结合,以理顺要素价格体系为主要手段推进结构调整,坚决淘汰落后产能,为先进生产力腾出投资空间。建议下半年不再加大“保增长”方面的政策刺激力度,将工作重点放在落实和完善已出台的政策上,培育带动新一轮经济复苏的新增长点。 Due to the role of a series of policies of the Central Government, China’s economy has bottomed out in the first quarter of the year. In the second half of the year, the trend of stabilizing is clear. It is estimated that the annual GDP will grow by about 8% while the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size will increase by 8.5%. However, due to the high dependence on foreign economy in our country, the weak external demand has caused the overcapacity in most industries. The expansion of domestic demand can not and should not maintain the old structure. In the next stage, we must pay more attention to integrating the guarantee of growth with the adjustment of the structure, rationalize the factor price system as the main measure to promote structural adjustment, resolutely eliminate outdated production capacity and make room for advanced productivity Investment space. It is suggested that the policy stimulus in the second half of the year should not be increased and “policy on maintaining growth” should be strengthened. We will focus our efforts on implementing and perfecting the policies that have been promulgated and cultivating new growth points that will bring a new round of economic recovery.