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回顾分析2007年至今中国宏观经济运行的变化历程,运用回归模型估计测度美国次贷危机导致的全球金融危机对中国季度GDP增长率的影响和三大产业增加值的损失额,并间接验证2008年底所推出的刺激政策的有效性;在目前全球经济复苏缓慢、新一轮欧债危机逐步演化、国际经济政治形势复杂多变的背景下,中国经济增长的波动性增强,可能面临的外部冲击主要在外需形势不明朗和国际游资频繁进出两方面,内部面临稳增长、控通胀的问题,并提出针对投资、出口、消费的一系列应对措施。
This paper reviews the evolution of the macroeconomic performance in China since 2007 and estimates the impact of the global financial crisis on the growth rate of China’s quarterly GDP caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the loss of added value of the three major industries indirectly through the regression model. The effectiveness of the stimulus package that has been introduced; under the background of the current slow global economic recovery, the gradual evolution of the new round of European debt crisis and the complicated and volatile international economic and political situation, the volatility of China’s economic growth has increased and the external shocks that may be faced mainly In the face of uncertainties in external demand and the frequent inflow and outflow of international hot money, the government faces the problem of steady growth and inflation control and proposes a series of measures aimed at investment, export and consumption.