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文章提出了一种数值方法对经济波动的福利成本进行跨国跨期分析:(1)中国经济波动的福利成本相当大,不支持卢卡斯论断,而美国经济波动的福利成本支持卢卡斯论断,即经济波动不具有重要的福利价值;(2)中美之间的福利成本差异并非特例,而是具有一般性意义,发展中国家的经济波动整体上位于“具有重要福利价值”的区间,发达国家的经济波动整体上位于“不具有重要福利价值”区间;(3)当高速增长期结束后,伴随着经济增长速度明显下降,经济波动的福利成本也有所下降,但这一阶段的经济波动仍然不支持卢卡斯论断。
The paper presents a numerical approach to the cross-country intertemporal analysis of the welfare costs of economic fluctuations: (1) The welfare cost of China’s economic fluctuations is rather large and does not support Lucas’s assertion. The welfare cost of the US economic fluctuations supports Lucas’s assertion , That is, economic fluctuations do not have important welfare value; (2) the difference in welfare costs between China and the United States is not exceptional but has a general meaning. The economic fluctuations in developing countries as a whole lie in “important welfare value” In the interval, the economic fluctuations in developed countries are generally in the range of “no significant welfare value”. (3) When the period of rapid growth is over, the economic growth rate declines significantly and the welfare cost of economic fluctuations also declines, One stage of economic volatility still does not support Lucas’s assertion.