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在引入特定的宏观经济、金融和政策变量等控制变量后,本文尝试检验东欧、东亚和拉丁美洲三大主要新兴经济体的资金流动方向及其对经济增长的影响。实证结果显示:东欧地区收入水平与金融深化程度仍然偏低,但随着发展程度提高,未来将由资金流入转为流出。东亚地区的超额外汇储备、贸易顺差与资金流出,被指控为造成美国巨额经常账户赤字与全球经常账户失衡的主要原因之一。但该地区若能够持续进行金融深化,资金可能回流并使全球经常账户失衡现象得以缓解。至于拉丁美洲地区的宏观经济、金融和政策变量,对资金流动方向并无决定性影响,财政与货币政策仍是决定资金流入能否有助于经济增长的关键因素。最后,本文对解决我国国际收支不平衡问题提出了政策建议。
After introducing some control variables such as macroeconomic, financial and policy variables, this paper attempts to examine the direction of capital flows and their impact on economic growth in the three major emerging economies of Eastern Europe, East Asia and Latin America. The empirical results show that the income level and financial deepening in Eastern Europe are still low, but as the degree of development increases, the future will be shifted from capital inflow to outflow. East Asia’s excess foreign exchange reserves, trade surpluses and outflows have been accused of being one of the main causes of the huge current account deficit in the United States and the global current account imbalance. However, sustained financial deepening in the region could trigger a return of capital and ease the global current account imbalance. As for the macroeconomic, financial and policy variables in Latin America, which have no decisive effect on the direction of capital flows, fiscal and monetary policies are still the key determinants of whether capital inflows can contribute to economic growth. Finally, this paper puts forward policy suggestions to solve the unbalanced international balance of payments in our country.