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基于12项反映四川省在2006年1月—2011年12月旅游业发展指标数据,利用主成分分析计算期间每月的旅游业发展状况得分,并结合K-均值聚类、图表法研究旅游业发展的宏观变化规律;同时运用均值、标准差、变异系数等方法分析期间旅游指标的微观变化特征。结果表明:①四川省旅游业受2008年“5.12”大地震的影响较大,直到2011年才恢复到震前水平;②四川省的国际旅游业绩受2008年“5.12”突发危机事件消极影响较大;③四川省的国内旅游业绩受2008年“5.12”突发危机事件消极影响较小,恢复较快;④国际旅游对突发危机事件反映比较敏感,而国内旅游受影响较小,其发展带有刚性特点,其原因是国内、国外市场存在“信息不对称”的差异。
Based on the 12 indicators of tourism development in Sichuan Province from January 2006 to December 2011, we use the principal component analysis to calculate the monthly tourism development status scores during the period. Based on the K-means clustering and charting method, The development of the macro changes; mean time, standard deviation, coefficient of variation and other methods to analyze the characteristics of tourism during the micro-change. The results show that: (1) Tourism in Sichuan Province is greatly affected by the “5.12” earthquake in 2008 and was not restored to the pre-earthquake level until 2011; (2) Sichuan’s international tourism performance was affected by the sudden onset of “5.12” in 2008 The negative impact of the crisis events was greater; ③ Sichuan’s domestic tourism performance was less negatively affected by the sudden crisis in “5.12” in 2008 and recovered rapidly; ④International tourism was more sensitive to sudden crisis events, while domestic tourism Affected by the smaller, its development with a rigid character, the reason is that there are domestic and foreign markets “information asymmetry ” difference.