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一、总体供求格局判断 1989年下半年起,我国市场由旺转萧,全年社会商品零售总额和物资系统生产资料销售额的增长率比上年大幅度下降;与此相适应,工业生产的增长速度也急剧回落。面对企业生产滑坡,效益下降,财政收入下滑的严峻形势,1989年4季度起国家实行宽松的宏观金融政策,放松中间需求。1990年以来,政策松动的势头不减,到1990年8月未银行各项贷款余额达13368亿元,比1990年初增加958亿元,比去年同期增加592亿元,这两项数额均超过了银行信用高度膨胀的1988年水平(1988年1—8月银行新增贷款额为927.1亿元,比1987年同期增加556.9亿元)。同时为刺激最终需求,1990年全国职工工资总额呈逐月加速的态势,1—8月职工工资总额比去年同期增长10.6％,扣除价格因素实增
I. General Judgments of Supply and Demand Pattern Since the second half of 1989, the market of our country has changed from a prosperous economy to a prosperous one. The growth rate of the total retail sales of social goods and the sales of means of production of materials and materials has dropped sharply from the previous year as compared with the previous year. In line with this, The growth rate also dropped sharply. Confronted with the grim situation of declining production efficiency, declining efficiency and declining fiscal revenue, the State started a relaxed macro-financial policy in the fourth quarter of 1989 to ease its intermediate demand. Since 1990, the loosening of the policy has not diminished. By August 1990, the outstanding balance of loans to all banks reached 1,336.8 billion yuan, an increase of 95.8 billion yuan over the beginning of 1990 and an increase of 59.2 billion yuan over the same period of last year, both of which exceeded The level of bank credit was soaring in 1988 (from January to August 1988, the new loans of banks reached 92.71 billion yuan, an increase of 55.69 billion yuan over the same period of 1987). At the same time, in order to stimulate the final demand, the total wages of workers in the country were accelerated month by month in 1990. The total wage of workers in January-August increased by 10.6% over the same period of last year. Excluding the real increase in the price factor