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目的以某一模拟队列资料的宫颈上皮内瘤变Ⅱ级(cervical intraepithelial neoplasia,CINⅡ°)及以上(CINⅢ°、宫颈癌)的发病率估计为例,探讨Bayse法在队列研究资料发病率估计中的应用。方法假设某地区进行宫颈癌基线筛查8万人,对其中5万基线筛查阴性者进行隔年随访,总计随访10万人年。其中1 000人细胞学阳性,需要做病理学检查,最终收到900份病理报告,检出CINⅡ°及以上者120例,通过Bayse法估计该地区CINⅡ°及以上的发病情况。结果通过Bayse法考虑病理检查随访人群中的失访病例以及细胞学检查阴性人群中的漏诊病例,估计该队列CINⅡ°及以上的发病率为180.23/10万,95%CI为(146.59/10万～226.06/10万)。结论基于Bayse法,考虑了病理检查随访人群中的失访病例以及细胞学检查阴性人群中的漏诊病例,估计得到的该地区CINⅡ°及以上的发病率更合理、更准确。
Objective To estimate the incidence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CINⅡ °) and above (CINⅢ °, cervical cancer) in a simulated cohort as an example to investigate the Bayse’s method in estimating the incidence of cohort data Applications. Methods Assuming a baseline screening of cervical cancer in an area of 80000 people, of which 50000 baseline screening negative for follow-up every year, a total follow-up of 100000 person-years. Of these, 1,000 were cytologically positive and required pathological examination. Finally, 900 pathological reports were received, and 120 patients with CIN II ° and above were detected. The Bayse method was used to estimate the incidence of CIN II ° and above in the area. Results The rate of CIN II ° and above in this cohort was estimated to be 180.23 / lakh and 95% CI (146.59 / lakh) by the Bayse method in the follow-up study of pathological follow-up and missed examinations in cytology-negative patients ~ 226.06 / 100,000). Conclusions Based on the Bayse method, the number of missed cases in the pathological follow-up population and missed cases in the cytology-negative population were considered. The estimated incidence of CIN II ° and above in the area is more reasonable and accurate.