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本文基于Bass模型,发展了两个适用于中国城乡二元社会结构的新产品扩散模型。其基本假设是,由于中国存在显著的城乡二元社会结构,因此应将城镇和农村看成是两个市场,可将产品在某一地区的扩散视为是在两个不同质市场中扩散结果的累加。采用30个省(自治区、直辖市)的彩电扩散数据进行实证研究。实证结果支持分离模型的假设,分离模型的曲线拟合效果和一步预测准确度比其他模型更优。
Based on the Bass model, this paper develops two new product diffusion models that apply to the dual social structure of urban and rural areas in China. The basic assumption is that because of the existence of a significant urban-rural dual social structure in China, urban and rural areas should be regarded as two markets, and the proliferation of products in one area can be regarded as the diffusion of results in two different markets The cumulative. Employing 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) to conduct empirical research on diffusion data of color TV sets. The empirical results support the hypothesis of the separation model, the curve fitting effect and the one-step prediction accuracy of the separation model are better than other models.