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目的探讨气象因素对北京市房山区手足口病发病的影响,初步建立手足口病的早期预测模型。方法选用乘法季节自回归移动平均模型(SARMA)分析房山区手足口病发病与气象因素的关系。利用2009-2013年资料建立模型,并用2014年1-8月资料对模型进行验证。结果房山区手足口病发病与平均气温、相对湿度、降水量、气压等均有显著相关。SARMA(0,1)(1,0)12模型结果显示,平均温度升高1℉,相对湿度增加1%,平均气压降低100 Pa,将分别导致手足口病的发病率升高27.51%,12.40%,1.36%。拟合的模型可以对房山区手足口病发病进行短期预测。结论气温、相对湿度、气压等气象因素与房山区手足口病发病相关,可将其作为预测房山区手足口病发病的指标。
Objective To explore the impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of HFMD in Fangshan District, Beijing, and to establish an early prediction model of HFMD. Methods The seasonal multiplication seasonal autoregressive moving average model (SARMA) was used to analyze the relationship between HFMD and meteorological factors in Fangshan District. Using the data from 2009 to 2013 to establish the model and using the data from January to August 2014 to validate the model. Results The incidence of HFMD in Fangshan District was significantly correlated with mean temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and air pressure. The SARMA (0,1) (1,0) 12 model results show that the average temperature rise of 1 ° F, relative humidity increase of 1%, the average pressure drop of 100 Pa, will lead to the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease increased by 27.51%, 12.40 %, 1.36%. The fitted model can make a short-term prediction of HFMD in Fangshan District. Conclusion The meteorological factors such as temperature, relative humidity and barometric pressure are related to the incidence of HFMD in Fangshan District, which may be used as an index to predict HFMD in Fangshan District.