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在气候变化背景下,深入揭示玉米气候生产力的变化趋势及其空间差异、明晰玉米气候资源利用规律,可为黑龙江省农业生产宏观决策提供科学依据.基于黑龙江省72个气象站1981—2014年的气象资料和对应的产量资料,采用逐步订正、空间插值、线性趋势分析等方法,研究玉米的光合、光温、气候生产力的时空变化特征、主要影响因素和增产潜力,并对未来不同气候情景下玉米气候生产力进行评估.结果表明:研究期间,黑龙江省玉米光合、光温和气候生产力平均值分别为26558、19953和18742 kg·hm~(-2);在空间分布上均表现为平原高山地低、由西南向东北逐渐减少;光合、光温、气候生产力均表现为显著增加趋势,其增幅分别为378、723和560 kg·hm~(-2)·(10 a)~(-1),且辐射量和气温的增加对黑龙江省玉米生产具有正效应;玉米气候生产力对气候变化响应明显,松嫩平原西部因光能资源的减少导致玉米光合生产力降低,气温升高则在一定程度上弥补了光照带来的负面效应,玉米光温生产力下降趋势有所减缓,北部和东部对气候变暖的响应表现尤为明显,玉米光温生产力表现为明显上升趋势,而松嫩平原西南部及三江平原易旱区则对降水变化反映敏感;玉米实际单产与其气候生产力比率的平均值仅为24.1%,仍有75.9%的潜力有待开发;未来“暖湿型”气候对提高玉米气候生产力有利,而“冷干型”气候则不利于玉米气候生产力的提高.
In the context of climate change, the in-depth analysis of the trends and spatial differences of maize climatic productivity and the clear understanding of the laws of maize climatic resource utilization can provide a scientific basis for macroeconomic decision-making of agricultural production in Heilongjiang Province.According to the data of 72 weather stations in Heilongjiang Province from 1981 to 2014 Meteorological data and corresponding yield data, the temporal and spatial characteristics of maize photosynthesis, light temperature and climate productivity, the main influencing factors and yield potential were studied by means of stepwise correction, spatial interpolation and linear trend analysis. In the future, under different climate scenarios The results showed that during the study period, the average photosynthetic rate, light and moderate climate productivity of maize in Heilongjiang Province were 26558, 19953 and 18742 kg · hm -2, respectively. , And decreased from southwest to northeast. The photosynthesis, light temperature and climate productivity all showed a significant increase trend, which were 378, 723 and 560 kg · hm -2 · (10 a) -1, And the increase of radiation and air temperature had a positive effect on the corn production in Heilongjiang Province. The response of maize climate productivity to climate change was obvious. The light energy The decrease of source led to the decrease of photosynthetic productivity of maize. The increase of temperature compensated the negative effect brought by light to a certain extent, the decrease of productivity of light and temperature of maize slowed down, and the response of north and east to climate warming was more obvious. Light and temperature productivity showed a clear upward trend, while the southwestern Songnen Plain and the drought-prone area of the Sanjiang Plain were sensitive to the change of precipitation. The average actual yield of corn and its climatic productivity ratio was only 24.1%, with a potential of 75.9%. Development; the future “warm and wet type” climate to improve the productivity of maize climate is beneficial, and “cold and dry type ” climate is not conducive to the improvement of maize climate productivity.