为了对我国收入差距的未来形势作一个判断,本文区分了收入差距扩大和缩小的影响因素,并对他们的长期和短期稳定性进行了分析。总的来看,我们认为在未来短时间内,影响我国收入差距的体制、机制性因素和障碍都难以得到有效改善,收入差距变动的主要因素如城乡分割及歧视、地区差距等也难以在短时间内发生实质性的变化;而惠农政策和一些市场化因素虽然会缩小收入差距,但是却并不构成收入差距中的主要方面。所以,我们认为,未来短时间内我国收入差距水平仍将处在高位;而且,如果没有坚持市场化改革的方向和真正撼动垄断利益阶层的把控,那么我国的收入差距水平甚至会继续扩大。 In order to make a judgment on the future situation of the income gap in our country, this paper distinguishes the influencing factors of the widening and narrowing of the income gap and analyzes their long-term and short-term stability. In general, we think it is difficult to effectively improve the system, mechanism and obstacles that affect the income gap in our country in the near future. The main factors that change the income gap, such as urban-rural split and discrimination, and regional disparities, are also hard to be short-lived Substantial changes have taken place in time, while the benefit-agriculture policy and some market-oriented factors will narrow the income gap but will not constitute the major aspect of the income gap. Therefore, we believe that the income gap in our country will remain at a high level in the near future. And if we do not adhere to the direction of market-oriented reforms and truly control the strata of monopolistic interests, the level of income disparity in our country will even continue to expand.