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本文利用33年的现代地震资料,计算了鲜水河断裂带及其附近地区的高精度b值.计算结果显示:研究区b值分布在不同段落具有较大差异,b值低异常区主要集中在鲜水河断裂中段,即道孚—康定段的附近区域,从而反映该区域具有较高的应力水平,是未来几年强震高发区.值得注意的是,2014年11月22日康定M_S6.3地震恰恰发生在b值低异常区的南缘.这不仅说明康定地震的发生是有据可依的,更有力地证实了利用b值空间差异推测区域应力水平,是分析强震危险性的一种可选方法.
In this paper, 33 years of modern seismic data are used to calculate the high-precision b value of the Xianshuihe fault zone and its vicinity.The calculated results show that the b value distribution in the study area has great differences in different sections and the b-value low anomaly area mainly concentrates In the middle section of the Xianshuihe fault, that is, in the area near the Daofu-Kangding section, which reflects the high level of stress in the region, it is a high incidence of strong earthquakes in the coming years. It is noteworthy that on November 22, 2014, Kangding M_S6 .3 earthquakes occur precisely at the southern margin of the low b-value anomalous zone, which not only shows that the occurrence of the Kangding earthquake is evidence-based, but also confirms the use of b-space differences to better infer the regional stress level, An alternative method.