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中国的人口老化,在下个世纪将会给国家的不完善社会保险制度带来沉重的负担。1966～1975年出生的这一批人是2亿多,占目前总人口的22%左右,到2030年,他们都将是65岁左右。世界银行最近的一份报告提醒说,到那时,65岁及其以上的人所占比例将从5.9%增加到14%,即增加两倍多。而就业年龄的人与老年人之比,则将从9.72 : 1下降到4.22 : 1。这种困境到下个世纪会更加严重,因为在文化大革命中出生的人大批都到了退休年龄。中国21世纪30年代面临的困境,与发达的西方国家和日本在未来十年中所面临的是相同的。但是,由于中国发展水平较低,供养退休人员的财政实力远不如日本。同时两国退休
China’s aging population will bring a heavy burden to the country’s imperfect social insurance system in the next century. Over 200 million people were born between 1966 and 1975, accounting for about 22% of the current total population. By 2030, they will all be around 65 years old. A recent World Bank report cautions that by then, the proportion of people aged 65 and over will increase from 5.9% to 14%, or more than tripling. While the ratio of working-age to elderly will decrease from 9.72: 1 to 4.22: 1. This dilemma will be even more serious in the next century as the large number of people born during the Cultural Revolution have reached the retirement age. The dilemma China faces in the 1930s is the same as that faced by the developed Western countries and Japan over the next decade. However, due to the relatively low level of development in China, the fiscal strength of retiring dependents is far less than that of Japan. At the same time, both countries retire