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中国按照现在的增长轨道能保持未来30年的高速增长吗?要回答这个问题,我们需要知道,第一,我们在未来30年能否继续维持这么高的国民储蓄率。而能否继续维持这么高的国民储蓄率与人口结构的变动趋势和劳动力的增长前景有很大的关系。第二,即使我们维持着高储蓄率,经济能否继续保持增长速度不下降,则还要取决于我们的生产率是否最终能够成为实现经济增长的主要源泉。一段时间以来,随着国际上不断升温的对人民币汇率问题的高度关注,中国经济增长的现状与增长的前景再度成为近来国际主流财经与政治媒体的讨论焦点。在中国国内,备受媒体追逐和公众关注的话题层出不穷。从人民币汇率形成机制到出口税的建议;从惊人的贸易增长到频繁的贸易摩擦纠纷,从大中型国有企业的股权改造到国有商业银行的重组,从证券市场改革到保险资金入市,从解决农民收入增长的问题到私营经济的发展等等。今年以来,一系列重大举措和改革方略接二连三的出台,标志着中国的社会主义市场经济体制建设进入了一个真正“攻坚”阶段,这个阶段的完成对于完善我们的市场经济体制具有重大意义。在这个新的阶段和背景下,中国的经济将会发生什么样的变化,我们能否实现高速和更有效率的增长,以及这样的增长还能持续多久,必将成为我们必须思考和关注的问题。
Can China maintain its rapid growth in the next 30 years according to the current growth track? To answer this question, we need to know first, whether we can maintain such a high national saving rate in the next 30 years. Whether or not we can continue to maintain such a high national saving rate has a great bearing on the changing demographic trends and the growth prospects of the labor force. Second, even if we maintain a high saving rate and whether the economy can keep its growth rate from falling, we also depend on whether our productivity can eventually become the main source of economic growth. For some time now, with the increasing concern about the RMB exchange rate in the world, the current situation of economic growth in China and the prospect of growth have once again become the focus of discussion in the international mainstream financial and political media recently. In China, the topic of much media chase and public concern emerges one after another. From the formation of the RMB exchange rate mechanism to the export tax proposal; from the alarming increase in trade to frequent trade friction disputes, from the reform of ownership of large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises to the restructuring of state-owned commercial banks, from the securities market reform to insurance funds into the market, The issue of income growth to the development of the private economy and so on. Since the beginning of this year, a series of major measures and the promulgation of the reform strategy have marked the fact that China’s socialist market economic system has entered a real “storming” stage. The completion of this stage is of great significance to perfecting our market economic system. In this new stage and background, what will happen to China’s economy? Whether we can achieve rapid and more efficient growth and how long such growth will continue will surely become what we must think and pay attention to. problem.