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本文以西直门——颐和园修建地下铁道为例,阐述了通过调查研究,分析历史统计资料,运用多种预测方法与技巧,预测地下铁道客运量问题。对修建地铁的消耗与效益从宏观和微观两方面进行定性分析与定量计算。按资金的时间价值,系统地计算评价经济效益的各项技术经济指标。文中涉及的理论与方法,可供城市交通建设项目决策参考。
Taking Xizhimen-Summer Palace construction of subway system as an example, this paper expounds the prediction of passenger volume of subway by means of investigation, analysis of historical statistics and application of various forecasting methods and techniques. The consumption and benefit of the construction of the subway are qualitatively analyzed and quantitatively calculated from the macro and micro aspects. According to the time value of funds, systematically calculate the technical and economic indicators for evaluating economic benefits. The theory and method involved in this article can be used as a reference for decision-making of urban traffic construction projects.