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解惑:存塘鱼的隐性需求、蛋氨酸价格支持以及菜粕交割受限都是造成价差过低的原因首先我们认为,豆菜粕价格走低是比较正常的,因为2015年1~5月份菜籽进口同比减少27%,压榨出粕加上进口菜粕的数量同比减少45万t,所以在豆粕供应如此充裕的前提下,菜粕相对较强从而抑制需求是很符合基本面的,所以才有了9月豆菜粕价差在上市之后到2015年年初下跌到600元的过程,与此同时,水产料中菜粕比例已经下调至最低水平了,但豆菜粕价格又进一步打到400~500的区间,显然不再是豆菜粕的替代关系所致的。我们此次调研过程中发现,有3点因素导致这一现象:
Doubts: the hidden demand for storage ponds, methionine price support and rapeseed meal delivery are the reasons causing the spread is too low First, we think that the lower price of beans and rapeseed meal is more normal, because in January to May 2015 dishes As a result, the import of seeds decreased by 27% over the same period of last year, while the output of pressed meal plus imported rapeseed meal decreased by 450,000 tons as compared with the same period of last year. Therefore, with the sufficient supply of soybean meal, rapeseed meal is relatively strong and the demand is restrained in a very fundamental way With the drop in the price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in September after listing, it dropped to 600 yuan in early 2015. Meanwhile, the proportion of rapeseed meal in aquatic products has been reduced to the lowest level, but the price of bean and rapeseed meal has further hit 400 ~ 500 range is clearly no longer a substitute for the relationship between beans and rapeseed meal. We found in the course of this investigation, there are three factors that lead to this phenomenon: