冬小麦的产量高低受农业技术措施和气象条件等多种因素的综合影响。我市丘陵山区(本文指阳曲、娄烦、古交)由于水源缺乏,地薄肥少,耕作粗放,冬小麦产量受当年气候影响很大,所以选择与冬小麦产量关系密切的气候因子预报产量有一定可靠性。一、预报因子的选择建立准确性较高的产量预报模式,关键在于选择出物理学意义和生物学意义都明确的预 The level of winter wheat production is influenced by the combination of various agricultural technologies and meteorological conditions. Due to the lack of water, thin land and low fertility and extensive cultivation, the yield of winter wheat is greatly affected by the current climate. Therefore, the climatic factors that are closely related to the output of winter wheat are forecast to have a yield of A certain reliability. First, the choice of the forecast factor To establish a higher accuracy of the yield forecast model, the key lies in the choice of both physical and biological significance of the clear pre-