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一、投资增长超过30％,将导致经济过热成为现实根据一季度国民经济发展趋势来看,若不采取措施,预测今年全社会固定资产投资总额增长很可能近30％,达到9800亿元或接近万亿元。按此方案对国民经济的走势预测结果为:GNP增长可达12.2％,社会商品零售物价总指数上涨达10.1％,现金发行量增长34％。该方案下,能源供给从生产能力方面来看,发电量可增长9.5％左右,对经济增长的弹性系数为0.79,与上年大体持平;原煤目前库存仍然较多,主要是安排好今年新增3000万吨左右煤炭的运输问题;原油方面供求矛盾相对突出,应利用当前国际市场原油价格基本稳定在20美元/桶的有利时机。适当增加进口。原材料供给方面,化肥、两碱、乙烯、十种有色金属、建材大部分都能满足需求,供求缺口较大的主
I. Investment growth of over 30% will lead to economic overheating a reality According to the first quarter of the national economic development trend, if no measures are taken, it is estimated that the total social investment in fixed assets will grow by nearly 30% this year, reaching 980 billion yuan or close to One trillion yuan. According to this plan, the trend of the national economy is predicted as follows: the GNP will grow by 12.2%, the retail price index of social goods will rise by 10.1% and the cash circulation will increase by 34%. Under the program, energy supply from the production capacity point of view, generating capacity can increase about 9.5%, the economic growth of the elastic coefficient of 0.79, with the previous year generally flat; coal stocks are still more, mainly arranged for new additions this year 30 million tons of coal transport problems; the contradiction between supply and demand of crude oil is relatively prominent, should take advantage of the current international market crude oil prices basically stable at 20 US dollars / barrel favorable opportunity. Appropriate increase in imports. Raw material supply, fertilizer, two bases, ethylene, ten non-ferrous metals, most of building materials to meet the demand, the larger the supply and demand of the Lord